重點：貌似業內情緒開始逆轉了？？為啥除了股東唉聲嘆氣之外船司都在買買買，租租租。。。。莫不成MSC真的要成為大贏家？

市場對后續運價的預期決定了租賃費高低，而租賃費高低又會影響短期拆解的數量多少，這也是3月拆船數量促減大大低于預期的原因，但是長期三五年而言該拆的一個都跑不掉，環保新規的約束在那里 。五年內占比33.6%的老舊船都將變成超過20年這些船因為低碳原因百分百都得被拆掉毋庸置疑。

April 7, 2023 2023年4月7日

(相關資料圖)

By Mike Wackett (The Loadstar) – 邁克·瓦科特(The Loadstar) -

More optimistic demand forecasts and the prospect of a better peak season this year are driving a containership charter market rally, with aggressive carriers still snapping-up tonnage as it becomes open. 更樂觀的需求預測以及今年旺季好轉的前景，正推動集裝箱船租賃市場上漲，隨著集裝箱船開航，積極進取的承運商仍在搶購噸位。

According to a recent survey of supply chain professionals by logistics platform Container xChange, 48% of respondents believe this year’s peak season will be better than last year’s. 物流平臺Container xChange最近對供應鏈專業人士進行的一項調查顯示，48%的受訪者認為今年的旺季將比去年更好。

Container xChange co-founder and CEO Christian Roeloffs said industry sentiment was “gradually turning positive” and added: “We anticipate a subdued rebound in demand as retailers begin to deplete their excess stock in the coming months, leading up to the peak season.” Container xChange聯合創始人兼首席執行官Christian roeloff表示，行業情緒“逐漸轉向積極”，并補充說:“我們預計需求將出現溫和反彈，因為零售商將在未來幾個月開始耗盡他們的過剩庫存，導致旺季到來。”

And carriers are hearing positive news from their major shippers that purchase orders, to replenish old stock and buy in new season lines, are starting to trickle through. 航運公司也從主要貨主那里聽到了積極的消息，即補充舊庫存和購買新季貨物的采購訂單開始陸續到位。

“I think we are over the worst,” a UK-based carrier contact told The Loadstarthis week. “我認為我們已經度過了最糟糕的時期，”一位英國航空公司的聯系人本周告訴《Loadstar》。

Awash with cash and eager to capture market share, the container lines have gone back to the charter market to boost their capacity and Alphaliner said this week activity in the market “remained high”, with “demand strong across the board”. 這些集裝箱航運公司現金充裕，急于奪取市場份額，它們已重返包租市場，以提高運力。Alphaliner本周表示，市場活動“仍然很高”，“需求全面強勁”。

Indeed, daily hire rates are on the increase in all containership sizes, with owners demanding a minimum 12-month charter period as well as positioning compensation. 事實上，所有集裝箱船的日租金都在上漲，船東要求至少12個月的租期以及定位補償。

For example, Japanese ocean carrier ONE has just agreed a two-year charter for the 2008-built 6,350 teu Brightonat a rate of $32,500 a day, from 17 May. This is only slightly below the $35,000 previous charterer Wan Hai was paying for a two-year fixture during the demand boom. 例如，日本海運公司ONE剛剛同意從5月17日起租用2008年建造的6350標箱的“布萊頓”號，租金為每天3.25萬美元，為期兩年。這一價格僅略低于需求旺盛時期萬海租船人為兩年租約支付的3.5萬美元。

The market seems to be dominated by enquiries from MSC and CMA CGM, which are continuing where they left off when the downturn hit, hoovering-up any open tonnage on the charter market, and prepared to wave their chequebooks at owners that might be interested in selling ships. 市場似乎被MSC和CMA CGM的詢盤所主導，這兩家公司仍在繼續他們在經濟低迷時停止的工作，在租船市場上收購任何開放的噸位，并準備向可能有興趣出售船只的船東揮舞支票簿。

Alphaliner noted that MSC had “snapped-up another six vessels in the past days”, including two 1999-built 5,300 teu ships from rival carrier Evergreen that were expected to be sold for demolition. Alphaliner指出，地中海航運“過去幾天又收購了6艘船”，其中包括兩艘1999年建造的5300標箱船，它們來自競爭對手長榮，原預計將被出售拆除。

The recent acquisitions takes MSC’s colossal buying spree of second-hand container tonnage to more than 300 ships since August 2020, resulting in an operating fleet capacity of 4.8m teu, close to 1m teu more than its 2M partner, Maersk. 最近的收購使MSC自2020年8月以來瘋狂購買二手集裝箱噸位的船只達到300多艘，運營船隊容量達到480萬teu，比其200萬teu的合作伙伴馬士基(Maersk)高出近100萬teu。

Moreover, the Geneva-based carrier has a huge orderbook of 1.7m teu, compared with the 370,000 teu ordered by Maersk. 此外，這家總部位于日內瓦的航運公司有170萬teu的龐大訂單，而馬士基的訂單只有37萬teu。

CMA CGM is the second-most active carrier in the S&P market, having bought 100 second-hand ships since 2020, taking its operating fleet capacity to 3.4m teu, which, with its orderbook of nearly 1m teu, will see the French carrier threaten Maersk’s second place in the global carrier rankings. CMA CGM是標普市場上第二活躍的航運公司，自2020年以來購買了100艘二手船，使其運營船隊運力達到340萬teu，加上其近100萬teu的訂單量，這家法國航運公司將威脅馬士基(Maersk)在全球航運公司排名中的第二名。

$東方海外國際(00316)$$中遠海控(01919)$$中遠海控(SH601919)$

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